Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a dominant force in national politics since the 1950s, is facing its most severe crisis in decades. The assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo in 2022 presaged multiple corruption scandals for the party, which in turn led to Kishida Fumio’s subsequent resignation and the ascension of Ishiba Shigeru to the premiership. Ishiba’s subsequent decision to call early elections resulted in a minority government, ending a decade-long period of majority coalition government. These events indicate that Japan’s second-oldest party no longer possesses hegemony over national politics.
The LDP’s current struggles parallel those of Italy’s Christian Democracy (DC) during its terminal decline in the 1990s. Like the Japanese LDP, the Italian DC once dominated national politics by uniting disparate factions under a single political big tent, competently managing Italy’s post-war economic recovery, and capitalizing on Cold War-era geopolitics by positioning itself as a democratic bulwark against Communism. DC’s alliances with business groups such as Confindustria, which facilitated the exchange of ample campaign funds for favorable regulations and other deals, cemented DC’s hegemony in Italian politics for decades.
The LDP’s dominance similarly stemmed from the anti-Communist and right-wing factions it consolidated after 1955. The LDP further benefited from the single non-transferable vote electoral system which ensured most of its candidates were elected. Financial support from Japan’s keiretsu conglomerates enabled the party to outspend and outmanouver its opposition while presiding over the nation’s postwar economic boom.
Nevertheless, decades of uninterrupted power fostered stagnation in both parties. In Italy, the DC’s dominance, already declining due to sinking popular support, completely unraveled following the 1992 mani pulite (“clean hands”) investigation, which exposed systemic corruption in DC and many other parties. Dubbed Tangentopoli (“bribesville”), the scandal shattered the Italian public’s trust and led to the DC’s complete electoral demise within two years.
The LDP may be on a similar trajectory because it is likewise weathering scandals that are reducing its public support. After revelations of the party’s links to the Unification Church, public approval for the Kishida government plummeted from 52 percent to 36 percent within a month, only for a series of other corruption scandals to subsequently erode this support further. By late 2023, the Kishida cabinet’s approval ratings had sunk below 25 percent, signalling a potential point of no return. Despite changing prime ministers and party leadership, the LDP depends on a confidence-and-supply agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People to pass legislation, the first such arrangement in decades.
The LDP has proven resilient before though. Although it lost its majority in both the 1993 and 2009 general elections, it returned to power due to a divided opposition and its own adaptability. However, the LDP’s current crisis is compounded by an increasingly popular opposition and the potential collapse of the LDP’s traditional voter base. Based on the historic example of the Italian DC, the Japanese LDP thus faces three possible scenarios: leadership reshuffles, prolonged minority government, or complete electoral collapse.
Leadership changes seem inevitable. Whereas Ishiba’s cabinet initially enjoyed approval ratings as high as 50.7 percent upon taking office, those ratings sunk dramatically to 28 percent just prior to the election, the lowest numbers since 2000. The LDP then saw its worst electoral performance in history. The government’s instability may accordingly convince LDP grandees to replace Ishiba, once considered an ‘internal opposition’, with someone new.
Prolonged minority government is also possible, especially as the LDP’s coalition with Komeito becomes increasingly unstable. If defections weaken the coalition or if the opposition manages to consolidate further, the LDP could be forced out of power altogether.
The final scenario, a full-scale electoral collapse akin to DC’s demise, remains the least likely out of the three, but still cannot be ruled out. While the LDP’s scandals have not reached the same magnitude as Tangentopoli, the LDP’s continued struggle with graft and its constant shuffling of leaders continues to erode public trust in the party. Japan’s ruling party is unlikely to regain the power it possessed even a few years ago, and this decline could develop into the spiral of deterioration that befell DC.
Even if the LDP avoids the same collapse that befell DC, its days as Japan’s unchallenged dominant party seem to be over. The LDP may retain the premiership for the time being, but its future in office increasingly depends on forging successful partnerships with opposition parties. For a party so accustomed to ruling with little opposition, the LDP has a new reality to adapt to.
Italy’s DC’s historical decline hence offers a valuable lesson to Japan’s LDP: political dominance without public accountability is unsustainable. Japan’s ruling party must either undergo significant anti-corruption reforms to rebuild public trust or risk following Italy’s DC into electoral demise.
Bios
Francis Shin is an author and research analyst focused on global governance, democratic resilience, and grand strategy. His expertise spans anti-corruption regulations, clean energy policy, payment systems, and alliance structures.
Dr. Samuel Kramer researches ethnopolitics and its effect on modern European history. He was a Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Tartu and has served in various public, private, and nonprofit roles. He holds a PhD in History from the University of St Andrews.
