Once again, the ongoing US-China trade war has complicated global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. With China’s imposition of a new set of export controls on rare earth elements and the second Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies, the global economy has come under increasing strain.
Meanwhile, advanced economies face new challenges in securing the minerals critical for the production of renewable energy technologies. Because China accounts for about 70 and 90 percent of the world’s mining and refining of rare earth elements (respectively) and scientists warn of an impending “tipping point” in climate change, China’s increasing export controls on such critical minerals could have disastrous consequences far beyond these economic disturbances.
However, even if China agrees to lift these export controls, states still need to diversify and bolster the resilience of global critical mineral supply chains. The Commonwealth of Nations should step up to this task due to its role as a consensus-based forum spanning critical mineral-rich states and advanced consumer economies.
Indeed, member-states have already recognized the Commonwealth’s prospective strengths in tackling climate change, including in its support programs for critical mineral mining. Nevertheless, such plans must go much further, especially in increasing the refining capabilities of member-states, as that has received inadequate attention in recent Commonwealth agreements.
Therefore, to safeguard against further shocks in global critical mineral supply chains, the Commonwealth must establish a task force and framework to organize the investment, regulatory alignment, and capacity building efforts necessary to support the extraction, refining, and trade of critical minerals.
On its surface, the Commonwealth may seem like an unusual platform to achieve critical mineral security. Detractors frequently dismiss it either as a bygone relic of British colonialism or as an ineffectual talking shop because of membership bloat and reliance on consensus for key decision making.
On the other hand, the group has significant potential because of its geoeconomic reach. Notably, the Commonwealth’s linking of mineral-rich states to advanced consumer economies, as well as middle powers to small powers, is done on the basis of equal footing for all of its 56 members in decision making. Its wide geographical coverage across five continents and openness to partnership with other multilateral institutions furthermore ensures it can foster cooperation in a multitude of policy arenas beyond its formal membership.
Preventing and mitigating damage from climate change is no exception. In fact, because the Commonwealth has more member-states vulnerable to climate change than most other multilateral groups, it is one of the most active intergovernmental organizations in global climate action through its promotion of technical assistance, policy guidance, and capacity building in various activities, including critical minerals mining. The Secretariat additionally built upon these priorities by identifying environmental resilience as a core pillar of its 2025–2030 strategic plan.
While such support is a good start, the economic disruptions from China’s export controls on rare earth elements indicates that the Commonwealth must do more. Luckily, the Commonwealth’s previous work to tackle climate change and set standards for critical minerals mining indicates that there is already some consensus on implementing stable norms. Attendees at this month’s Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting (CFMM) similarly committed to deepening their economic cooperation via the Commonwealth to insulate themselves from further economic shocks.
In that vein, the Commonwealth must establish a task force to respond to emerging shocks on critical mineral supply chains and mitigate disruptions from future ones. The task force should be regionally diverse and primarily consist of officials from the Commonwealth’s major critical minerals producers and consumers. Alongside these officials, a small number of policy experts should act as a working group to provide reports and guidance for the task force.
The task force should correspondingly interface with Commonwealth members through regular consultations (such as through virtual channels in emergencies) to encourage consensus on how to bolster the resilience of critical mineral supply chains. Such consultations should also aid in the future creation of a data sharing network on critical mineral supply chains, which would be invaluable in reducing market uncertainty around the critical mineral trade and ease investment decisions for producers and consumers.
The task force should likewise set guidelines for cooperative frameworks for critical mineral mining and processing across the Commonwealth, particularly on foreign direct investment, regulatory alignment, and capacity building. The Commonwealth is particularly well-suited to implement such structures due to its consensus and inclusivity-based culture, which will be particularly useful in supporting the development of refining capacities in mineral-rich member states.
And, because so much of the world’s refining of critical minerals runs through a handful of states (primarily China), increasing Commonwealth members’ own refining would greatly moderate the risks of future shocks in global refining activities. The mitigation of such hazards would benefit not just for Commonwealth members but the wider international community as well, as the global economy will be less vulnerable with a more resilient critical minerals market and progress in climate action will continue unabated.
Thus, on the 60th anniversary of the Secretariat’s founding, the Commonwealth of Nations stands at a crucial crossroads. Amid increasing turmoil in critical mineral supply chains and the wider global economy, the Commonwealth will be crucial in addressing many of the vulnerabilities of global critical mineral supply chains. Because of its unique position as a bridge between resource-rich and advanced economies and emphasis on consensus and inclusivity, the Commonwealth must become an even greater contributor to global stability and the fight against climate change.